Dive headfirst into the tumultuous aftermath of the South Carolina Republican primary as we dissect Donald Trump's significant win over Nikki Haley, capturing a decisive 60% of the vote. Feel the seismic shifts within the GOP as we contrast Trump's victory with Biden's near-unanimous support among Democrats, and question the polling data that seemed to miss the mark. Beyond the numbers, we scrutinize the media narratives that shape our political landscape, examining the media's handling of Trump's note card incident at a rally and the apparent double standards applied to Joe Biden. Through this lens, we'll expose how media portrayal influences democratic processes and voter perceptions, providing you with a clearer view of the political chessboard.
Witness the internal strife of the Republican Party as it grapples with a divide between unwavering Trump loyalists and advocates for a more universally electable candidate. We'll explore how this rift, illuminated by exit polls and voter sentiment, could tip the scales in a tight 2024 election race. With Judge Ngorn's ruling pressing down on Trump's finances, we speculate on the future of his campaign infrastructure in the face of mounting debts and legal battles. Step into the world of political finance and strategy as we consider the potential impact of a financially hamstrung Trump on the GOP's battle plan, asking the pivotal question: Can Trump march toward the 2024 elections without the war chest that has traditionally fueled presidential bids?
Dive headfirst into the tumultuous aftermath of the South Carolina Republican primary as we dissect Donald Trump's significant win over Nikki Haley, capturing a decisive 60% of the vote. Feel the seismic shifts within the GOP as we contrast Trump's victory with Biden's near-unanimous support among Democrats, and question the polling data that seemed to miss the mark. Beyond the numbers, we scrutinize the media narratives that shape our political landscape, examining the media's handling of Trump's note card incident at a rally and the apparent double standards applied to Joe Biden. Through this lens, we'll expose how media portrayal influences democratic processes and voter perceptions, providing you with a clearer view of the political chessboard.
Witness the internal strife of the Republican Party as it grapples with a divide between unwavering Trump loyalists and advocates for a more universally electable candidate. We'll explore how this rift, illuminated by exit polls and voter sentiment, could tip the scales in a tight 2024 election race. With Judge Ngorn's ruling pressing down on Trump's finances, we speculate on the future of his campaign infrastructure in the face of mounting debts and legal battles. Step into the world of political finance and strategy as we consider the potential impact of a financially hamstrung Trump on the GOP's battle plan, asking the pivotal question: Can Trump march toward the 2024 elections without the war chest that has traditionally fueled presidential bids?
Yo, what up? This is D-Night and you're listening to the part of the Interaction podcast. We are back with another Pocket Part episode for you today. The results from the South Carolina Republican primary are in. The media has gone totally off the rails. Maga is insane, as per the usual. But before we get to all of that, let's give a quick shout out to our sponsor, sheets and Giggles. Grab you some damn sheets from SheetsandGigglescom, because they are the best things you will ever sleep under or on top of in your life, and that includes your husband or your wife or your girlfriend or your boyfriend or your side piece or your mistress. You know, no, judge me here, I don't care how y'all kick it, as long as you getting it on on some sheets from SheetsandGigglescom. And if you would like a little discount, you can check out the description for a link, courtesy of PartinPod. Also, our co-hosts have written a couple of books, so feel free to grab a copy of those. Links are also in the description. No pressure, though. Biden does have the economy humming, but we ain't asking you to go broke to support the podcast.
Speaker 1:
On to the news, as of yesterday, we got the results of the Republican primary in South Carolina and whoop-de-doo, surprised, surprise. Donald Trump was victorious over his challenger and former employee, nikki Haley that's Nikki with three Ks, in case you forgot that time and she got on national TV and told us that the cause of the Civil War wasn't slavery. It was absolutely wild, like it's incredible, that she performed that well, giving those comments. But hey, I guess when you're going up against Trump, like what's a what's a small bit of rewriting history in favor of racism by comparison, normally shit like that would sink anyone's presidential campaign. But look, when you're a Republican, you can do anything and people who still vote for you. You can commit endless amounts of fraud. Well, I guess not endless. We have an actual figure on that amount of fraud it's currently up to four hundred and sixty four million dollars in New York. You know, or you can commit espionage by selling lots of classified documents and hiding them from the government and, you know, having them disappear to potentially who knows where. You can also be found liable for sexual assault or, as Trump would put it, like literally grabbing someone by the pussy, which did, of course, happen in New York again.
Speaker 1:
Let's get to a couple of noteworthy numbers here. So Trump ended up getting around 60% of the vote in North Carolina, with Nikki Haley ending up with around 39.5%. So I guess the media calling that an overwhelming and decisive victory in South Carolina could be construed as somewhat accurate. Until you take the time to realize that President Biden won the South Carolina Democratic primary, or something like 96% of the vote. 96% that's an insanely crushing number when you compare that to the 60% the Trump just got in South Carolina.
Speaker 1:
Given that Trump is running as though he's the incumbent here, given that he did serve four years in the White House, the fact that the media isn't spending more time talking about just how weak he is as a potential candidate is beyond insane. Like imagine a world where 40% of the Democratic Party was voting against Joe Biden. You'd never hear the fucking end of it, never. It would never go away, it would never stop. The media would not have, like it'd be, endless articles. And you know this because what was it?
Speaker 1:
Axios the other day wrote this story. The headline about I don't know something about donors or voters being concerned that Joe Biden uses note cards. The article was written by a motherfucker who uses note cards. Yeah, and if you think that's wild, guess what Axios didn't cover. So Trump was at a rally this weekend when he was reading from note cards about the support from his various family members, and he went on to name them Melania, don Jr, ivanka, even Laura Trump guess, we forgot Eric? Even reading from the note cards, he can't remember the names of his family members. Axios didn't write an article about that. No, they did not. But that's okay. That's why I'm here to point out the ridiculous nonsense that the media continues to engage in that just makes them look totally I don't know either incompetent or complicit in the potential ending of our democracy. I am hoping that they'll eventually get it together. My expectations are low.
Speaker 1:
Anyway, back to the South Carolina primary. So one other notable number, or at least notable in the grand scheme of things, is that before the primary, trump was polling at somewhere around 65 to 70 percent, with Nikki Haley polling around 30 percent. If you look at the actual results as it turns out, trump got significantly less than that and Haley outperformed the polling by nearly 10 percentage points. And while it's quite possible that there's no need to read too far into that, you could also argue that the polling isn't picking up on some of Trump's actual weaknesses and how they play out in actual elections when people have the opportunity to vote Right. So we all look at Donald Trump, or at least in the context of all of the things surrounding Trump all of these indictments, the failure to fund raise for the Republican Party, like the vote share that Biden is getting in the Democratic primary versus what Trump is getting in the Republican primary, and these polls that, at least over the past year and a half or so, have showed Republicans to be stronger than they actually are.
Speaker 1:
In reality, is that the polling methodology might be possibly flawed and it's favoring Trump in the polls, giving him a margin that his support doesn't actually warrant. You know TLDR. He's not nearly as popular as the polling suggests, and that's you know. That comes to bear every time people have the opportunity to turn out and vote. But I think one of the ways in which that's super dangerous is that I believe the only thing that's keeping Trump afloat is this idea among Republicans that Trump still has the possibility of beating Biden right.
Speaker 1:
So you're a Republican voter. You know all this crazy shit is going on with Trump on Earth, one where people operate with common sense. They look at this and be like damn, we have to get another candidate. This is insane. Like no presidential candidate could possibly win under these circumstances, except for you have these polls out here that make it appear as though Trump is in a competitive race with Biden. Then you don't have any real incentive as a Trump supporter as a Trump supporter to vote for a different candidate because you think the Trump is electable. Now, whether that is reality is beside the point.
Speaker 1:
What matters is people's opinions of Trump's electability in so far as conservative voters and conservative donors, because if you just look at what happened to Nikki Haley with her loss in South Carolina, you know as embarrassing it is, as it is, to lose in your home state, especially at the state where you used to be governor. Like upon her loss in South Carolina, it appears as though the Koch brothers have pulled out of Nikki Haley and her campaign. Sorry for the phrasing there. I don't know what happened, but because it appears as though Haley has no chance of beating Trump, the money has stopped flowing. What would happen if it appears as though Trump has no chance of beating Biden? Right, so the wealthy donors would eventually decide that they would be better off not throwing their money way on a candidate that they know is going to lose in a presidential election, or even a primary in this particular instance, right, but that these polls have this, what seems to be a Trump favoring bias, baked into the mix, baked into the equation, like there is no incentive for people to not throw their vote and their money away on this dude, like I think. And the thing is is like if his support collapsed enough so that it appears as though the 2024 election, the presidential election, the general election, wouldn't be competitive, his support, the primary, would tank. So it's like the polls are creating this self-fulfilling prophecy where Trump may actually not be electable but because the polls say otherwise, he continues to receive more support from his cohorts in the Republican Party or the Republican donor class. Then he should otherwise. And then he gets to use that money to fund his, his GOP primary campaign, more so the Nikki Haley, which continues to rally support behind him from voters that he probably shouldn't warn otherwise. Very fucking wild.
Speaker 1:
I had predicted it like the end of 2022, that we would eventually come to see a civil war inside the Republican Party, like the die hard troppers versus the people who want a candidate that can win. Well, the reason we haven't gotten that civil war is because the polls appear to be lying to people and so people look like Trump supporters are just complacent. They're complacent with their candidate, even though there's all this real world data that suggests Trump is not only going to lose in 2024, but the party is going to get fucking hammered. And there's one exit poll, in particular from South Carolina, that suggests that Trump is really in danger of getting blown out in 2024. And that is the fact that a significant portion of Nikki Haley supporters are, at this point, never troppers Like. Even if Trump wins the nomination, the significant portion of them forget the exact number are never going to vote for Trump.
Speaker 1:
Well, that's a huge fucking problem. Why, cuz? If you just go back to 2020, trump lost a popular vote, bought seven million votes. That's a fucking massive landslide victory for President Biden. But even though it's the case that Biden won by a significant margin in the popular vote, in a handful of swing states that could have tipped the election, trump only lost. He lost by like less than a hundred thousand votes, right? Well, in those swing states where you might have more moderate Republicans who might typically be closer to voting for Nikki Haley than voting for Trump in a Republican primary, like.
Speaker 1:
All it takes for Trump to lose in a massive fashion. In a massive fashion is for, you know, three, four, five percent of Nikki Haley supporters to decide that there's no way they're gonna vote for Trump. Now, that sounds like a tiny number, right? She didn't even get half the support in the primary in South Carolina. So let's just say, 40% of Republicans support Nikki Haley and let's say, a mere five percent of Nikki Haley supporters will refuse to vote for Trump in the 2024 election, right? So 10% of 40% is 4%, and then, you know, half that to get to 5% is 2%. So let's say, 2% of Republican voters all across the nation refuse to vote for Trump because Nikki Haley has given them the opportunity to voice their displeasure and they've come to the conclusion that Trump shouldn't be president, whatever the circumstances may be, that they're not going to vote for him. So let's say it's Michigan. The vote is split between Democrats and Republicans in Michigan 50, 50. 50% of Michigan voters choose Democrats up and down the ballot. 50% of Republican voters choose Republicans up and down the ballot, except for 2% of Republican voters at the top of the ticket Vote for Joe Biden. It is game set match.
Speaker 1:
At that point, there's no way the Trump can make up losing 2% of his base in swing states that he just lost in the 2020 election in a world where he doesn't have the power of incumbency anymore. And also, just like, from a practical matter, trump and the entire Republican Party are suffering from, like a cash shortage, like the entire party is broke, and I don't like Trump's packs are broke. I mean, they're not like flat broke, but like there is in terms of like cash on hand. They're in the teens as far as millions of dollars. Like between Biden, the DNC and Biden's packs, there are over 120 million cash on hand. That's a massive fucking advantage, not to mention this other issue that we're going to get to momentarily. You know the fact that Trump personally might be broke here, but again, we'll save that for just a moment.
Speaker 1:
So, even in a race that might normally be 5050 splits between Trump and Biden, trump losing 2% of support from his own base is Doomsday. It is a doomsday scenario because it makes Biden unbeatable in swing states that are close, and I think over the course of the next few weeks, you're going to see a lot more panic from the Republican Party, the Republican establishment, the people who look at the fucking numbers and the data and pull it together to try and figure out what's the path to victory here. And this despite the polling that shows a competitive race between Trump and Biden. That's keeping Trump afloat. That could also lead to a Republican-Silver War, and this is why you don't need anybody to primary Biden for all those idiots out there that continue to suggest somehow that Biden is in trouble here. It's really Trump that's in trouble. And as long as Nikki Haley continues to stay in the race and give, like a conservative voters who aren't necessarily sold on a second Trump administration the opportunity to psychologically come to the conclusion that it's OK to not vote for Trump, the worst office chances get.
Speaker 1:
And if somehow like and we forget this, but like Trump is going on trial here for criminal charges in New York in less than a month, it's fucking bananas. And like, like, no one's even talking about it. It's so wild, like, how do you not? There's a trial, a criminal trial, for the leading Republican candidate in 2024 taking place, or at least the jury selection begins in less than 30 days, and no one in the news media is fucking talking about it. It's you, can't make it up. Can't make it up. So if there happens to be a conviction, in that case and I'm not entirely sure how many weeks the trial will take place, but it will likely Will likely be in a situation where, as far as delegates go, trump will have worn enough on Super Tuesday to lock up the nomination.
Speaker 1:
And there's really no, there's no rules whatsoever in the D&S or in the RNC, rather, they can prevent him from becoming the nominee. So there, there may be a situation where Trump is locked in but then he's criminally convicted and then that 2 percent of the Trump base, the refuses to vote for Trump, no matter what at turns into five or 10 or 15 percent or some ridiculous number. We're like not only is Trump unelectable but he might take the entire party in states that Republicans normally win. You know and I don't want to get you guys hopes up Like I'm not telling you it's a guarantee that that'll happen, but like there is that possibility that we're sitting there in the summer with at least one Trump criminal conviction. He's polling in the 30 percent range as far as, like the 2024 general election. That's insurmountable.
Speaker 1:
You remember that Falcon Super Bowl where they had like a 28 to three lead over the New England Patriots. In time Brady and time Brady managed to come back from that. Well, like being down, being down like 30 percent to 60, whatever, in favor of Biden, that's like a 58 to three lead and half time Nobody can come back from that. I mean they like at that point, like the Republican plan, to win it would have to be assassin a Joe Biden, because that's like that's the only possible way. It's the only possible way for them to come back.
Speaker 1:
But let's say somehow, like Voters get the idea that, hey, trump is unelectable, super Tuesday, we can still vote for Haley. They can still, you know, elect, select another candidate to be their nominee. The scenario in that case is that, the same way that a percentage of Haley's voters have decided that there's no way Shape former fashion in which they will cast their vote for Trump in the presidential election, there's an even larger percentage of Trump loyalists who just won't show up to the ballot box in November. Again, another scenario Do not only spells doom for Trump in terms of the possibility of winning the 2024 election, but it portends doom for the entire party down ballot because it trumps out on the ballot in 2024 for whatever reason, like, say, the Supreme Court has tricked us and they're actually going to look at the Constitution and read the literal text and decide the Trump is disqualified or somehow Haley pulls off the nomination beatstrap and he's not on the ticket.
Speaker 1:
It's a lot of mad Republicans out there who ain't gonna vote for nobody. They not. Not only are they not gonna vote for whoever the nominee is, whether they be Haley or someone else, they ain't gonna vote, period. And there's a lot of governors, a lot of state legislatures, a lot of local Officials who are relying on that Trump boost To help put them over the top that they won't get. Five, ten, twenty percent of Republican voters decide to just hang it up in 2024 and if they're not voting yes, a real, it's like it's not the most likely scenario, but there's definitely a real possibility.
Speaker 1:
And I say all that to say this like the idea that the media is out here suggesting that Biden has problems is fucking bananas. Fuck it. There is no scenario when Biden ain't the nominee that doesn't involve Republicans committing some kind of fucking crime, because you know, of course they are likely to make commit a number of crimes. They'll literally do anything to try and win. At this point, I would imagine. I mean they've committed a number of crimes previously. Right, and I think like One of the major failings and look, you guys know me, I am typically, if not pro-merit Garland I At least have an explanation for the things that you might typically Consider to be a merit Garland failing.
Speaker 1:
However, the biggest mistake I think Garland made was not immediately coming in the office and and then died in Trump for obstruction of justice, as was detailed in the Mueller report, because I think that was a slam dunk case, especially after Trump attempted to overthrow the United States government on January 6, like no jury. At that point I was going to look at those charges and the evidence against him and Let him off the hook Because I mean the shit, look, the charges were pretty fucking clear-cut. He did everything possible to try and obstruct the Mueller investigation while he was president. It Mueller like listed out the potential crimes for you. I was like here you go, it's like a draft indictment when you guys at. And this isn't just to get Trump out of the way.
Speaker 1:
I think the lesson Republicans learned was like, hey, we can engage in all these fucking shenanigans that are probably illegal and there ain't gonna be no consequences. So I will, we stop, and this is how you end up with what is potentially a Russian intelligence operation To smear Joe Biden, leading to, like, an impeachment vote by Republicans in the house because, like, obviously, the information that they were relying on was not accurate. It was not actual evidence, it was disinformation Created by Russian intelligence services and they decided that they were willing to take take the risk of Looking appearing as though they were working with Russia again to rig yet another election. Really gonna take that risk because nobody went to jail for the first time, or at least you know. I take that back because Mueller did indict a significant number of people, which is an also a thing that, like, people seem to leave out. Like Mueller indicted people, like actually sent people to jail, and Trump obstructed that investigation. For those people who be like, well, mueller didn't arrest anybody, so it wasn't instruction.
Speaker 1:
If more people had gone to prison and Including a number of trops co-conspirators, republicans wouldn't be out here doing this wild, largely illegal shit now and then. It's definitely the case that I Guess what it's gonna end up being an entire podcast in of itself, but it's definitely the case that if Jack Smith had already indicted members of Congress for their role in the fake elect applied. Like Republicans wouldn't be out here trying to launder Russian disinformation to the public in an attempt to remove a sitting president. It's part of, like, a Russian intelligence operation. They just wouldn't be doing it, they wouldn't want to take them chances. But again, as I've said before, like I totally understand what Smith is doing.
Speaker 1:
Right, you know you want to make sure this Trump trial goes off before the election without a hitch, and the only way you can do that is to make sure the case is as streamlined as possible, and involving a significant amount of his co-conspirators, especially his members of Congress, would just make the case more complicated. It'd make, like all the pre-trial motions and such overwhelming as far as having the trial proceed as scheduled. Like I see what he was doing. But also, man, like sometimes you just got to look at the potential consequences of doing the right thing. Like all of these fuckers deserve to be facing charges. And like the idea that maybe we won't get the trial before the election because you indicted too many people. Like so be it, dude, because you only indicted Trump, in that case might not even make the trial there's, you know, any more of a significant delay. Like the trial's already been postponed temporarily. As it is, it's definitely not going to take place in March and at this rate you know it likely won't even take place in May, at the rate it's going.
Speaker 1:
We still haven't gotten the ruling from the Supreme Court on whether or not they're going to take up Trump's immunity claim the one where the DC Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Trump Like. We don't have any news on that so far. So as long as that's the case, everything in DC has stayed. It's just put on hold indefinitely until we get something out of the Supreme Court. Now, of course, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to do him any favors on the immunity case, but that's like a different conversation for another day. But we still need that to take place before Chutkin can get back to making moves and setting schedules and getting this thing back on track. And she's already said that it was going to take at least seven months to let Trump's defense team prepare. Trump's team only had five months to prepare up until this most recent delay, which means still have two more months on the clock, and that clock won't start ticking again until we hear from the Supreme Court. So even with that potential delay and his victory in South Carolina.
Speaker 1:
How well are things actually going for Trump? Well, not great guys. But Judge Ngorn has ruled that the enforcement proceedings against Trump for the 400 and I guess it's like $464 million at this point, because the interest keeps accruing daily. There's like a Trump tracker. A Trump tracker available online. It calculates that interest in real time. If you'd like to check that out, I think it's trump deck countercom. It's fucking hilarious. Every time I'm feeling down or despondent, I just click that thing, open it up and see that the numbers continue to go. The dollar amount continues to go up and up every single day, and that perks me right on up.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, so in going is ruled that the collection on on that judgment can begin within the next 30 days, and Trump is having some trouble coming up with the funds. I know all of his supporters said he was going to peel, but, like I said, or as a number of people have pointed out, to do that he'll either have to secure a bond, which just seems fucking impossible, or he will have to put the money in escrow up front, you know, along with whatever the pre-judgment interest will be. And I don't think he's got it, and the reason I don't believe that is because his previous judgment in the E Jean Carroll case, where she was awarded $83 million, he ain't able to come up with that. He's in court right now trying to fight that ruling and like, hey man, can you give me like another 30 days? I don't think he's got the money, guys, because if he can't come up with $83 million, he definitely can't come up with $464 million.
Speaker 1:
And I feel like this is the only podcast where it's even remotely mentioned. But how is Trump supposed to run a presidential campaign with no money? There is no campaign in modern history that's been ran in a presidential election cycle with no money and there's a reason for that. And that concludes this episode of Pardon the Interaction.